Milan 1-2 Lazio: Statistical Analysis

Milan vs Lazio

Milan vs Lazio

In Matchday 11 of the 2019/20 Serie A, Simone Inzaghi’s Lazio defeated Stefano Pioli’s Milan 2-1 at the San Siro. Below, a statistical analysis of the game between the Biancocelesti and the Rossoneri.

Milan vs Lazio: Expected Goals (xG) Step Plot

Milan vs Lazio, Expected Goals (xG) Step Plot, Source- @TacticsPlatform

Milan vs Lazio, Expected Goals (xG) Step Plot, Source- @TacticsPlatform

The diagram above summarizes every shot taken by Lazio (8 in total, 4 on target) and Milan (13 in total, 3 on target) in the match. Each shot is represented by a step and the height of the step measures the xG outcome of that shot; the higher the step, the more likely that the shot taken should have been converted. A dot with a player’s name represents when a goal was scored; as pictured above, the goalscorers were Ciro Immobile (25′), Bastos (Own Goal, 28′), and Joaquin Correa (83′). The coloured bar in the top left shows the probability of the Lazio winning the match (35%), Milan winning the match (30%), or a draw occurring (34%). Better known as a summary of all simulations, the y-axis represents the cumulative xG – how many goals should be scored – and the x-axis represents time. The Biancocelesti had a cumulative xG of 0.89 and the Rossoneri had a cumulative xG of 0.81.

Milan vs Lazio: Outcome Probability Bar Chart

Milan vs Lazio, Outcome Probability Bar Chart, Source- @TacticsPlatform

Milan vs Lazio, Outcome Probability Bar Chart, Source- @TacticsPlatform

Each chart in the diagram above is a summary of a 10,000-time simulation of the probability of how many goals Lazio (most likely 1) and Milan (most likely 0) should have scored; the colored bar is the actual number of goals the Biancocelesti (2) and the Rossoneri (1) scored.

Milan vs Lazio: Pass Network Plot & Shot Location Plot

Milan vs Lazio, Pass Network Plot & Shot Location Plot, Source- @TacticsPlatform

Milan vs Lazio, Pass Network Plot & Shot Location Plot, Source- @TacticsPlatform

The diagram above firstly shows the pass connection between players, represented by nodes. The size of each node denotes the number of touches each player has while the size and shade of the line between players indicates the frequency of the pass connection. The direction of the connection is not shown. As seen, Lazio’s most active players on the ball were Luis Alberto Acerbi, Lucas Leiva, and Senad Lulic; Milan’s most active players on the ball were Ismael Bennacer, Davide Calabria, and Theo Hernandez. In addition, the five main connections for Inzaghi’s men were between Acerbi-Bastos, Radu-Leiva, Lulic-Radu, Milinkovic-Lazzari, and Luis Alberto-Immobile; the five main connections for Pioli’s men were between Calhanoglu-Bennacer, Hernandez-Bennacer, Romagnoli-Hernandez, Duarte-Romagnoli, and Calabria-Duarte. These aforementioned connections are outlined in light blue (Lazio) and red (Milan). Secondly, this diagram shows the coordinate of where each shot was taken, plotted as dots. The size of the dot shows the xG; the bigger the dot, the higher the chance that the ball should be finding the back of the net. Colored dots represent goals. Overall, Lazio had 499 passes with a 79% accuracy rate while Milan had 433 passes with an 80.1% accuracy rate.

This content is part of the collaboration between The Laziali and Cheuk Hei Ho

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