Lazio 1-2 Celtic: Statistical Analysis

Lazio vs Celtic, Designed by @S_K_MOORE

Lazio vs Celtic, Designed by @S_K_MOORE

In Matchday 4 of the 2019/20 UEFA Europa League, Simone Inzaghi’s Lazio were defeated by Neil Lennon’s Celtic 2-1 at the Stadio Olimpico. Below, a statistical analysis of the game between the Biancocelesti and the Bhoys.

Lazio vs Celtic: Expected Goals (xG) Step Plot

Lazio vs Celtic, Expected Goals (xG) Step Plot, Source- @TacticsPlatform

Lazio vs Celtic, Expected Goals (xG) Step Plot, Source- @TacticsPlatform

The diagram above summarizes every shot taken by Lazio (15 in total, 6 on target) and Celtic (12 in total, 4 on target) in the match. Each shot is represented by a step and the height of the step measures the xG outcome of that shot; the higher the step, the more likely that the shot taken should have been converted. A dot with a player’s name represents when a goal was scored. As pictured above, the goalscorers were Ciro Immobile (7′), James Forrest (38′), and Olivier Ntcham (90+5′). The coloured bar in the top left shows the probability of the Lazio winning the match (60%), Celtic winning the match (17%), or a draw occurring (23%). Better known as a summary of all simulations, the y-axis represents the cumulative xG – how many goals should be scored – and the x-axis represents time. The Biancocelesti had a cumulative xG of 1.87 and the Bhoys had a cumulative xG of 1.01.

Lazio vs Celtic: Outcome Probability Bar Chart

Lazio vs Celtic, Outcome Probability Bar Chart, Source- @TacticsPlatform

Lazio vs Celtic, Outcome Probability Bar Chart, Source- @TacticsPlatform

Each chart in the diagram above is a summary of a 10,000-time simulation of the probability of how many goals Lazio (most likely 2) and Celtic (most likely 1) should have scored; the colored bar is the actual number of goals the Biancocelesti (1) and the Bhoys (2) scored.

Lazio vs Celtic: Pass Network Plot & Shot Location Plot

Lazio vs Celtic, Pass Network Plot & Shot Location Plot, Source- @TacticsPlatform

Lazio vs Celtic, Pass Network Plot & Shot Location Plot, Source- @TacticsPlatform

The diagram above firstly shows the pass connection between players, represented by nodes. The size of each node denotes the number of touches each player has while the size and shade of the line between players indicates the frequency of the pass connection. The direction of the connection is not shown. As seen, Lazio’s most active players on the ball were Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, Luiz Felipe, Denis Vavro, and Francesco Acerbi; Celtic’s most active players on the ball were Kristoffer Ajer, Scott Brown, Callum McGregor, and Jonny Hayes. In addition, the five main connections for Inzaghi’s men were between Strakosha-Acerbi, Acerbi-Vavro, Vavro-Luiz Felipe, Luiz Felipe-Milinkovic, and Lazzari-Luiz Felipe; the five main connections for Lennon’s men were between Ajer-Hayes, Hayes-McGregor, Ajer-McGregor, Brown-Forrest, and Christie-Forrest. These aforementioned connections are outlined in light blue (Lazio) and green (Celtic). Secondly, this diagram shows the coordinate of where each shot was taken, plotted as dots. The size of the dot shows the xG; the bigger the dot, the higher the chance that the ball should be finding the back of the net. Colored dots represent goals. Overall, Lazio had 566 passes with a 77.2% accuracy rate while Celtic had 434 passes with a 74.7% accuracy rate.

This content is part of the collaboration between The Laziali and Cheuk Hei Ho

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