Matchday 21, Roma 1-1 Lazio: Statistical Analysis

Roma vs Lazio

Roma vs Lazio

In Matchday 21 of the 2019/20 Serie A, Simone Inzaghi’s Lazio drew Paulo Fonseca’s Roma 1-1 at the Stadio Olimpico. Below, a statistical analysis of the game between the Biancocelesti and the Giallorossi.

Roma vs Lazio: Expected Goals (xG) Step Plot

Roma vs Lazio, Expected Goals (xG) Step Plot, Source- @TacticsPlatform

Roma vs Lazio, Expected Goals (xG) Step Plot, Source- @TacticsPlatform

The diagram above represents a summary of all simulations. The y-axis represents the cumulative xG (how many goals should be scored) and the x-axis represents time.

Lazio had a cumulative xG of 0.91 and Roma had a cumulative xG of 2.16.

In addition, the diagram above summarizes every shot taken by each club. Each shot is represented by a step and the height of the step measures the xG outcome of that shot; the higher the step, the more likely that the shot taken should have been converted.

The Biancocelesti had 6 total shots (2 shots on target) and the Giallorossi had 22 total shots with (3 shots on target) in the match.

A dot with a name on the ‘Expected Goals Step Plot’ represents when a goal was scored and who the goal was scored by.

As pictured above, the goalscorers were Edin Dzeko (26′) and Francesco Acerbi (34′).

Finally, the colored bar in the top left of the diagram shows the probability of each club winning the match or a draw occurring.

The probability of Lazio winning the match was 11%, the probability of Roma winning the match was 68%, and the probability of a draw occurring was 22%.

Roma vs Lazio: Outcome Probability Bar Chart

Roma vs Lazio, Outcome Probability Bar Chart, Source- @TacticsPlatform

Roma vs Lazio, Outcome Probability Bar Chart, Source- @TacticsPlatform

Each chart in the diagram above is a summary of a 10,000-time simulation of the probability of how many goals Lazio (most likely 1) and Roma (most likely 2) should have scored; the colored bar is the actual number of goals the Biancocelesti (1) and the Giallorossi (1) scored.

Roma vs LazioPass Network Plot & Shot Location Plot

Roma vs Lazio, Pass Network Plot & Shot Location Plot, Source- @TacticsPlatform

Roma vs Lazio, Pass Network Plot & Shot Location Plot, Source- @TacticsPlatform

The diagram above shows the pass connection between players, represented by nodes. The size of each node denotes the number of touches each player has while the size and shade of the line between players indicates the frequency of the pass connection. The direction of the connection is not shown. In addition, this diagram shows the coordinate of where each shot was taken, plotted as dots. The size of the dot shows the xG; the bigger the dot, the higher the chance that the ball should be finding the back of the net. The colored dark blue dots represent goals.

Overall, Lazio had 331 passes with a 74.6% accuracy rate while Roma had 641 passes with an 87.8% accuracy rate. As seen in the diagram above, Lazio’s most active players on the ball were Thomas Strakosha, Francesco Acerbi, Stefan Radu, Senad Lulic, and Lucas Leiva; Roma’s most active players on the ball were Chris Smalling, Gianluca Mancini, Davide Santon, Leonardo Spinazzola, and Edin Dzeko. In addition, the five main connections for Inzaghi’s men were between Strakosha-Acerbi, Acerbi-Radu, Radu-Lulic, Lulic-Lucas Leiva, Lulic-Milinkovic; the five main connections for Fonseca’s men were between Veretout-Santon, Santon-Mancini, Mancini-Smalling, Smalling-Spinazzola. These aforementioned connections are outlined in light blue (Lazio) and red (Roma).

This content is part of the collaboration between The Laziali and Cheuk Hei Ho

To converse with fellow Laziali, visit r/Lazio, a subreddit on Reddit made by Lazio fans, for Lazio fans

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