Matchday 22, Lazio 5-1 SPAL: Statistical Analysis

Lazio vs SPAL

Lazio vs SPAL

In Matchday 22 of the 2019/20 Serie A, Simone Inzaghi’s Lazio defeated Leonardo Semplici’s SPAL 5-1 at the Stadio Olimpico. Below, a statistical analysis of the game between the Biancocelesti and the Biancazzurri.

Lazio vs SPAL: Expected Goals (xG) Step Plot

Lazio vs SPAL, Expected Goals (xG) Step Plot, Source- @TacticsPlatform

Lazio vs SPAL, Expected Goals (xG) Step Plot, Source- @TacticsPlatform

The diagram above represents a summary of all simulations. The y-axis represents the cumulative xG (how many goals should be scored) and the x-axis represents time.

Lazio had a cumulative xG of 2.01 and SPAL had a cumulative xG of 0.96.

In addition, the diagram above summarizes every shot taken by each club. Each shot is represented by a step and the height of the step measures the xG outcome of that shot; the higher the step, the more likely that the shot taken should have been converted.

The Biancocelesti had 15 total shots (8 shots on target) and the Biancazzurri had 14 total shots with (4 shots on target) in the match.

A dot with a name on the ‘Expected Goals Step Plot’ represents when a goal was scored and who the goal was scored by.

As pictured above, the goalscorers were Ciro Immobile (3′, 29′), Felipe Caicedo (16′, 38′), Bobby Adekanye (58′), Simone Missiroli (65′).

Finally, the colored bar in the top left of the diagram shows the probability of each club winning the match or a draw occurring.

The probability of Lazio winning the match was 64%, the probability of SPAL winning the match was 21%, and the probability of a draw occurring was 15%.

Lazio vs SPAL: Outcome Probability Bar Chart

Lazio vs SPAL, Outcome Probability Bar Chart, Source- @TacticsPlatform

Lazio vs SPAL, Outcome Probability Bar Chart, Source- @TacticsPlatform

Each chart in the diagram above is a summary of a 10,000-time simulation of the probability of how many goals Lazio (most likely 2) and SPAL (most likely 1) should have scored; the colored bar is the actual number of goals the Biancocelesti (5) and the Biancazzurri (1) scored.

Lazio vs SPALPass Network Plot & Shot Location Plot

Lazio vs SPAL, Pass Network Plot & Shot Location Plot, Source- @TacticsPlatform

Lazio vs SPAL, Pass Network Plot & Shot Location Plot, Source- @TacticsPlatform

The diagram above shows the pass connection between players, represented by nodes. The size of each node denotes the number of touches each player has while the size and shade of the line between players indicates the frequency of the pass connection. The direction of the connection is not shown. In addition, this diagram shows the coordinate of where each shot was taken, plotted as dots. The size of the dot shows the xG; the bigger the dot, the higher the chance that the ball should be finding the back of the net. The colored dark blue dots represent goals.

Overall, Lazio had 581 passes with an 89.3% accuracy rate while SPAL had 500 passes with an 87.4% accuracy rate.

As seen in the diagram above, Lazio’s most active players on the ball were Lucas Leiva, Bastos, Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, Luis Alberto, and Francesco Acerbi; SPAL’s most active players on the ball were Simone Missiroli, Nenad Tomovic, Kevin Bonifazi, Arkadiusz Reca, and Bryan Dabo.

In addition, the five main connections for Inzaghi’s men were between Radu-Luis Alberto, Luis Alberto-Milinkovic, Luis Alberto-Lucas Leiva, Milinkovic-Bastos, and Bastos-Lazzari; the five main connections for Semplici’s men were between Bonifazi-Reca, Reca-Missiroli, Missiroli-Dabo, Missiroli-Lucas Castro, and Tomovic-Strefezza. These aforementioned connections are outlined in light blue (Lazio) and blue (SPAL).

This content is part of the collaboration between The Laziali and Cheuk Hei Ho

To converse with fellow Laziali, visit r/Lazio, a subreddit on Reddit made by Lazio fans, for Lazio fans

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