In Matchday 22 of the 2019/20 Serie A, Simone Inzaghi’s Lazio defeated Leonardo Semplici’s SPAL 5-1 at the Stadio Olimpico. Below, a statistical analysis of the game between the Biancocelesti and the Biancazzurri.

### Lazio vs SPAL: Expected Goals (xG) Step Plot

The diagram above represents a summary of all simulations. The y-axis represents the cumulative xG (how many goals should be scored) and the x-axis represents time.

Lazio had a cumulative xG of 2.01 and SPAL had a cumulative xG of 0.96.

In addition, the diagram above summarizes every shot taken by each club. Each shot is represented by a step and the height of the step measures the xG outcome of that shot; the higher the step, the more likely that the shot taken should have been converted.

The Biancocelesti had 15 total shots (8 shots on target) and the Biancazzurri had 14 total shots with (4 shots on target) in the match.

A dot with a name on the ‘Expected Goals Step Plot’ represents when a goal was scored and who the goal was scored by.

As pictured above, the goalscorers were Ciro Immobile (3′, 29′), Felipe Caicedo (16′, 38′), Bobby Adekanye (58′), Simone Missiroli (65′).

Finally, the colored bar in the top left of the diagram shows the probability of each club winning the match or a draw occurring.

The probability of Lazio winning the match was 64%, the probability of SPAL winning the match was 21%, and the probability of a draw occurring was 15%.

### Lazio vs SPAL: Outcome Probability Bar Chart

Each chart in the diagram above is a summary of a 10,000-time simulation of the probability of how many goals Lazio (most likely 2) and SPAL (most likely 1) should have scored; the colored bar is the actual number of goals the Biancocelesti (5) and the Biancazzurri (1) scored.