# Matchday 23, Parma 0-1 Lazio: Statistical Analysis

### Parma vs Lazio: Statistical Analysis

In Matchday 23 of the 2019/20 Serie A, Simone Inzaghi’s Lazio defeated Roberto D’Aversa’s Parma 1-0 at the Stadio Ennio Tardini. Below, a statistical analysis of the game between the Biancocelesti and the Gialloblu.

### Expected Goals (xG) Step Plot

The diagram above represents a summary of all simulations. The y-axis represents the cumulative xG (how many goals should be scored) and the x-axis represents time. Lazio had a cumulative xG of 1.90 and Parma had a cumulative xG of 0.96.

In addition, the diagram above summarizes every shot taken by each club. Each shot is represented by a step and the height of the step measures the xG outcome of that shot; the higher the step, the more likely that the shot taken should have been converted. The Biancocelesti had 19 total shots (4 shots on target) and the Gialloblu had 13 total shots (2 shots on target) in the match.

Furthermore, a dot with a name on the ‘Expected Goals Step Plot’ represents when a goal was scored and who the goal was scored by. As pictured above, the only goalscorer was Felipe Caicedo (41′).

Finally, the colored bar in the top left of the diagram shows the probability of each club winning the match or a draw occurring. The probability of Lazio winning the match was 61%, the probability of Parma winning the match was 17%, and the probability of a draw occurring was 22%.

### Outcome Probability Bar Chart

The charts in the diagram above are a summary of a 10,000-time simulation of the probability of how many goals: Lazio (most likely 2) and Parma (most likely 1) should have scored; the colored bar is the actual number of goals the Biancocelesti (1) and the Gialloblu (0) scored.