# Matchday 24, Lazio 2-1 Inter: Statistical Analysis

### Lazio vs Inter: Statistical Analysis

In Matchday 24 of the 2019/20 Serie A, Simone Inzaghi’s Lazio defeated Antonio Conte’s Inter 1-0 at the Stadio Olimpico. Below, a statistical analysis of the game between the Biancocelesti and the Nerazzurri.

### Expected Goals (xG) Step Plot

The diagram above represents a summary of all simulations. The y-axis represents the cumulative xG (how many goals should be scored) and the x-axis represents time. Lazio had a cumulative xG of 1.31 and Inter had a cumulative xG of 0.83.

In addition, the diagram above summarizes every shot taken by each club. Each shot is represented by a step and the height of the step measures the xG outcome of that shot; the higher the step, the more likely that the shot taken should have been converted. The Biancocelesti had 11 total shots (5 shots on target) and the Nerazzurri had 10 total shots (4 shots on target) in the match.

Furthermore, a dot with a name on the ‘Expected Goals Step Plot’ represents when a goal was scored and who the goal was scored by. As pictured above, the goalscorers were Ashley Young (44′), Ciro Immobile (50′)and Sergej Milinkovic-Savic (69′).

Finally, the colored bar in the top left of the diagram shows the probability of each club winning the match or a draw occurring. The probability of Lazio winning the match was 51%, the probability of Inter winning the match was 20%, and the probability of a draw occurring was 30%.

### Outcome Probability Bar Chart

The charts in the diagram above are a summary of a 10,000-time simulation of the probability of how many goals: Lazio (most likely 1) and Inter (most likely 0) should have scored; the colored bar is the actual number of goals the Biancocelesti (2) and the Nerazzurri (1) scored.