Lazio vs Inter: Statistical Analysis
In Matchday 24 of the 2019/20 Serie A, Simone Inzaghi’s Lazio defeated Antonio Conte’s Inter 1-0 at the Stadio Olimpico. Below, a statistical analysis of the game between the Biancocelesti and the Nerazzurri.
Expected Goals (xG) Step Plot
The diagram above represents a summary of all simulations. The y-axis represents the cumulative xG (how many goals should be scored) and the x-axis represents time. Lazio had a cumulative xG of 1.31 and Inter had a cumulative xG of 0.83.
In addition, the diagram above summarizes every shot taken by each club. Each shot is represented by a step and the height of the step measures the xG outcome of that shot; the higher the step, the more likely that the shot taken should have been converted. The Biancocelesti had 11 total shots (5 shots on target) and the Nerazzurri had 10 total shots (4 shots on target) in the match.
Furthermore, a dot with a name on the ‘Expected Goals Step Plot’ represents when a goal was scored and who the goal was scored by. As pictured above, the goalscorers were Ashley Young (44′), Ciro Immobile (50′), and Sergej Milinkovic-Savic (69′).
Finally, the colored bar in the top left of the diagram shows the probability of each club winning the match or a draw occurring. The probability of Lazio winning the match was 51%, the probability of Inter winning the match was 20%, and the probability of a draw occurring was 30%.
Outcome Probability Bar Chart
The charts in the diagram above are a summary of a 10,000-time simulation of the probability of how many goals: Lazio (most likely 1) and Inter (most likely 0) should have scored; the colored bar is the actual number of goals the Biancocelesti (2) and the Nerazzurri (1) scored.
Pass Network Plot & Shot Location Plot
The diagram above firstly shows the number of passes completed by each side in the match. Overall, Lazio had 500 passes with an 82.8% accuracy rate while Inter had 530 passes with an 82.3% accuracy rate.
Secondly, the diagram outlines the most active players for each team. Each player is represented by a node; the size of each node denotes the number of touches each player had. Lazio’s most active players on the ball were Luiz Felipe, Luis Alberto, Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, Stefan Radu, and Francesco Acerbi; Inter’s most active players on the ball were Diego Godin, Milan Skriniar, Antonio Candreva, Marcelo Brozovic, and Nicolo Barella.
Thirdly, the diagram indicates the pass connections between teammates. These connections are the shaded grey lines throughout the plots; the size and shade of the line between players indicates the frequency of a pass connection. It is important to note that the direction of each connection is not shown. The five main connections for Inzaghi’s men were between Acerbi-Radu, Radu-Luis Alberto, Luis Alberto-Milinkovic, Luiz Felipe-Milinkovic, and Luiz Felipe-Marusic; the five main connections for Conte’s men were between Vecino-Candreva, Candreva-Godin, Godin-de Vrij, de Vrij-Skriniar, and Skriniar-Young. These aforementioned connections are outlined in light blue (Lazio) and blue (Inter).
Finally, this diagram shows the coordinates of each shot. The shots are plotted as light grey dots while goals are plotted as dark blue dots. The size of each dot represents the xG; the bigger the dot, the higher the chance that this opportunity should have found the back of the net (been a dark blue dot). As mentioned before, the Biancocelesti had 11 total shots (5 shots on target) and the Nerazzurri had 10 total shots (4 shots on target).