Genoa vs Lazio: Statistical Analysis
In Matchday 25 of the 2019/20 Serie A, Simone Inzaghi’s Lazio defeated Davide Nicola’s Genoa 1-0 at the Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. Below, a statistical analysis of the game between the Biancocelesti and the Rossoblu.
Expected Goals (xG) Step Plot
The diagram above represents a summary of all simulations. The y-axis represents the cumulative xG (how many goals should be scored) and the x-axis represents time. Lazio had a cumulative xG of 1.40 and Genoa had a cumulative xG of 1.23.
In addition, the diagram above summarizes every shot taken by each club. Each shot is represented by a step and the height of the step measures the xG outcome of that shot; the higher the step, the more likely that the shot taken should have been converted. The Biancocelesti had 12 total shots (7 shots on target) and the Rossoblu had 13 total shots (6 shots on target) in the match.
Furthermore, a dot with a name on the ‘Expected Goals Step Plot’ represents when a goal was scored and who the goal was scored by. As pictured above, the goalscorers were Adam Marusic (2′), Ciro Immobile (51′), Francesco Cassata (57′), Danilo Cataldi (71′) and Domenico Criscito (90′).
Finally, the colored bar in the top left of the diagram shows the probability of each club winning the match or a draw occurring. The probability of Lazio winning the match was 38%, the probability of Genoa winning the match was 32%, and the probability of a draw occurring was 30%.
Outcome Probability Bar Chart
The charts in the diagram above are a summary of a 10,000-time simulation of the probability of how many goals: Lazio (most likely 1) and Genoa (most likely 1) should have scored; the colored bar is the actual number of goals the Biancocelesti (3) and the Rossoblu (2) scored.
Pass Network Plot & Shot Location Plot
The diagram above firstly shows the number of passes completed by each side in the match. Overall, Lazio had 419 passes with an 81.1% accuracy rate while Genoa had 593 passes with an 85.3% accuracy rate.
Secondly, the diagram outlines the most active players for each team. Each player is represented by a node; the size of each node denotes the number of touches each player had. Lazio’s most active players on the ball were Luis Alberto, Patric, Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, Stefan Radu, and Denis Vavro; Genoa’s most active players on the ball were Andrea Masiello, Davide Biraschi, Domenico Criscito, Adama Soumaoro, and Lassa Schone.
Thirdly, the diagram indicates the pass connections between teammates. These connections are the shaded grey lines throughout the plots; the size and shade of the line between players indicates the frequency of a pass connection. It is important to note that the direction of each connection is not shown. The five main connections for Inzaghi’s men were between Immobile-Luis Alberto, Luis Alberto-Radu, Radu-Vavro, Vavro-Patric, and Patric-Milinkovic; the five main connections for Nicola’s men were between Criscito-Masiello, Masiello-Schone, Masiello-Soumaoro, Soumaoro-Biraschi, and Biraschi-Ankersen. These aforementioned connections are outlined in light blue (Lazio) and red (Genoa).
Finally, this diagram shows the coordinates of each shot. The shots are plotted as light grey dots while goals are plotted as dark blue dots. The size of each dot represents the xG; the bigger the dot, the higher the chance that this opportunity should have found the back of the net (been a dark blue dot). As mentioned before, the Biancocelesti had 12 total shots (7 shots on target) and the Rossoblu had 13 total shots (6 shots on target).