Matchday 26, Lazio 2-0 Bologna: Statistical Analysis
Lazio vs Bologna: Statistical Analysis
In Matchday 26 of the 2019/20 Serie A, Simone Inzaghi’s Lazio defeated Siniša Mihajlović’s Bologna 2-0 at the Stadio Olimpico. Below, a statistical analysis of the game between the Biancocelesti and the Rossoblu.
Expected Goals (xG) Step Plot
The diagram above represents a summary of all simulations. The y-axis represents the cumulative xG (how many goals should be scored) and the x-axis represents time. Lazio had a cumulative xG of 1.07 and Bologna had a cumulative xG of 1.85.
In addition, the diagram above summarizes every shot taken by each club. Each shot is represented by a step and the height of the step measures the xG outcome of that shot; the higher the step, the more likely that the shot taken should have been converted. The Biancocelesti had 14 total shots (4 shots on target) and the Rossoblu had 17 total shots (3 shots on target) in the match.
Furthermore, a dot with a name on the ‘Expected Goals Step Plot’ represents when a goal was scored and who the goal was scored by. As pictured above, the goalscorers were Luis Alberto (18′) and Joaquin Correa (20′).
Finally, the colored bar in the top left of the diagram shows the probability of each club winning the match or a draw occurring. The probability of Lazio winning the match was 20%, the probability of Bologna winning the match was 57%, and the probability of a draw occurring was 23%.
Outcome Probability Bar Chart
The charts in the diagram above are a summary of a 10,000-time simulation of the probability of how many goals: Lazio (most likely 1) and Bologna (most likely 2) should have scored; the colored bar is the actual number of goals the Biancocelesti (2) and the Rossoblu (0) scored.
Pass Network Plot & Shot Location Plot
The diagram above firstly shows the number of passes completed by each side in the match. Overall, Lazio had 452 passes with an 81.2% accuracy rate while Bologna had 532 passes with an 84.2% accuracy rate.
Secondly, the diagram outlines the most active players for each team. Each player is represented by a node; the size of each node denotes the number of touches each player had. Lazio’s most active players on the ball were Thomas Strakosha, Stefan Radu, Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, Luis Alberto, Jony, and Patric; Bologna’s most active players on the ball were Stefano Denswil, Roberto Soriano, Andrea Poli, Mattia Bani, and Takehiro Tomiyasu.
Thirdly, the diagram indicates the pass connections between teammates. These connections are the shaded grey lines throughout the plots; the size and shade of the line between players indicates the frequency of a pass connection. It is important to note that the direction of each connection is not shown. The five main connections for Inzaghi’s men were between Strakosha-Luiz Felipe, Strakosha-Patric, Milinkovic-Lazzari, Luiz Felipe-Radu, and Radu-Jony; the five main connections for Mihajlović’s men were between Denswil-Barrow, Barrow-Soriano, Bani-Poli, Bani-Tomiyasu, and Poli-Tomiyasu. These aforementioned connections are outlined in light blue (Lazio) and blue (Bologna).
Finally, this diagram shows the coordinates of each shot. The shots are plotted as light grey dots while goals are plotted as dark blue dots. The size of each dot represents the xG; the bigger the dot, the higher the chance that this opportunity should have found the back of the net (been a dark blue dot). As mentioned before, the Biancocelesti had 14 total shots (4 shots on target) and the Rossoblu had 17 total shots (3 shots on target).