In Matchday 27 of the 2019/20 Serie A, Simone Inzaghi’s Lazio were defeated by Gian Piero Gasperini’s Atalanta 3-2 at the Gewiss Stadium. Below, a statistical analysis of the game between the Biancocelesti and the Nerazzurri.
Expected Goals (xG) Step Plot
The diagram above represents a summary of all simulations. The y-axis represents the cumulative xG (how many goals should be scored) and the x-axis represents time. Lazio had a cumulative xG of 0.36 and Atalanta had a cumulative xG of 2.45.
In addition, the diagram above summarizes every shot taken by each club. Each shot is represented by a step and the height of the step measures the xG outcome of that shot; the higher the step, the more likely that the shot taken should have been converted. The Biancocelesti had 7 total shots (3 shots on target) and the Nerazzurri had 24 total shots (7 shots on target) in the match.
Furthermore, a dot with a name on the ‘Expected Goals Step Plot’ represents when a goal was scored and who the goal was scored by. As pictured above, the goalscorers were Marten de Roon (5′), Sergej Milinkovic-Savic (11′), Robin Gosens (38′), Ruslan Malinovskiy (66′), and Jose Luis Palomino (80′).
Finally, the colored bar in the top left of the diagram shows the probability of each club winning the match or a draw occurring. The probability of Lazio winning the match was 3%, the probability of Atalanta winning the match was 86%, and the probability of a draw occurring was 11%.
Outcome Probability Bar Chart
The charts in the diagram above are a summary of a 10,000-time simulation of the probability of how many goals: Lazio (most likely 0) and Atalanta (most likely 2) should have scored; the colored bar is the actual number of goals the Biancocelesti (2) and the Nerazzurri (3) scored.
Pass Network Plot & Shot Location Plot
The diagram above firstly shows the number of passes completed by each side in the match. Overall, Lazio had 395 passes with a 74.2% accuracy rate while Atalanta had 600 passes with an 83.2% accuracy rate.
Secondly, the diagram outlines the most active players for each team. Each player is represented by a node; the size of each node denotes the number of touches each player had. Lazio’s most active players on the ball were Thomas Strakosha, Patric, Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, Manuel Lazzari, and Francesco Acerbi; Atalanta’s most active players on the ball were Alejandro Gomez, Remo Freuler, Hans Hateboer, Marten de Roon, and Berat Djimsiti.
Thirdly, the diagram indicates the pass connections between teammates. These connections are the shaded grey lines throughout the plots; the size and shade of the line between players indicates the frequency of a pass connection. It is important to note that the direction of each connection is not shown. The five main connections for Inzaghi’s men were between Strakosha-Patric, Patric-Lazzari, Patric-Milinkovic, Milinkovic-Lazzari, and Milinkovic-Immobile; the five main connections for Gasperini’s men were between Djimsiti-de Roon, de Roon-Hateboer, de Roon-Malinovskiy, Malinovskiy-Gomez, and Gomez-Freuler. These aforementioned connections are outlined in light blue (Lazio) and dark blue (Atalanta).
Finally, this diagram shows the coordinates of each shot. The shots are plotted as light grey dots while goals are plotted as dark blue dots. The size of each dot represents the xG; the bigger the dot, the higher the chance that this opportunity should have found the back of the net (been a dark blue dot). As mentioned before, the Biancocelesti had 7 total shots (3 shots on target) and the Nerazzurri had 24 total shots (7 shots on target).
This content is part of the collaboration between The Laziali and Cheuk Hei Ho.
