In Matchday 30 of the 2019/20 Serie A, Simone Inzaghi’s Lazio were defeated by Stefano Pioli’s Milan 3-0 at the Stadio Olimpico. Below, a statistical analysis of the game between the Biancocelesti and the Rossoneri.
Expected Goals (xG) Step Plot
The diagram above represents a summary of all simulations. The y-axis represents the cumulative xG (how many goals should be scored) and the x-axis represents time.
- Lazio: cumulative xG of 0.36
- Milan: cumulative xG of 1.75
In addition, the diagram above summarizes every shot taken by each club. Each shot is represented by a step and the height of the step measures the xG outcome of that shot; the higher the step, the more likely that the shot taken should have been converted.
- Lazio: 8 total shots, 2 shots on target
- Milan: 8 total shots, 5 shot on target
Furthermore, a dot with a name on the ‘Expected Goals Step Plot’ represents when a goal was scored and who the goal was scored by.
- Goalscorers (in order): Calhanolgu, Ibrahimovic (PK), Rebic
Finally, the colored bar in the top left of the diagram shows the probability of each club winning the match or a draw occurring.
- Lazio: 4%
- Milan: 80%
- Draw: 16%.
Outcome Probability Bar Chart
The charts in the diagram above are a summary of a 10,000-time simulation of the probability of how many goals each side should have scored and the actual number of goals each side scored.
- Lazio: most likely to score 0 goals, actually scored 0 goals
- Milan: most likely to score 2 goals, actually scored 3 goal
Pass Network Plot & Shot Location Plot
The diagram above firstly shows the number of passes completed by each side in the match.
- Lazio: 550 passes with a 79.6% accuracy rate
- Milan: 608 passes with an 85.4% accuracy rate
Secondly, the diagram outlines the most active players for each team. Each player is represented by a node; the size of each node denotes the number of touches each player had.
- Lazio’s most active players on the ball: Acerbi, Radu, Patric, Parolo, Lazzari
- Milan’s most active players on the ball: Romagnoli, Kjaer, Theo Hernandez, Kessie, Bennacer
Thirdly, the diagram indicates the pass connections between teammates. These connections are the shaded grey lines throughout the plots; the size and shade of the line between players indicates the frequency of a pass connection. It is important to note that the direction of each connection is not shown. These connections are outlined in light blue (Lazio) and red (Milan).
- Lazio’s top five connections: Jony-Radu, Radu-Patric, Acerbi-Patric, Patric-Lazzari, Milinkovic-Lazzari
- Milan’s top five connections: Theo Hernandez-Kessie, Theo Hernandez-Romagnoli, Romagnoli-Kjaer, Bennacer-Conti, Bennacer-Saelemaekers
Finally, this diagram shows the coordinates of each shot. The shots are plotted as light grey dots while goals are plotted as dark blue dots. The size of each dot represents the xG; the bigger the dot, the higher the chance that this opportunity should have found the back of the net (been a dark blue dot).
- Lazio: 8 total shots, 2 shots on target
- Milan: 8 total shots, 5 shot on target