Inter Milan 3-1 Lazio: Statistical Analysis

In Matchday 22 of the 2020/21 Serie A, Inter Milan defeated Lazio 3-1 at the San Siro.

Their record is now 12W-4D-6L in the top flight of Italian football, collecting 40 of a possible 66 points.

Below is a statistical analysis of the game between the Nerazzurri and the Biancocelesti.

MORE: Inter 3-1 Lazio | Vote for Your Man of the Match

Outcome Probability Bar Chart

The charts in the diagram above are a summary of a 10,000-time simulation of the probability of how many goals each side should have scored and the actual number of goals each side scored.

  • Inter: most likely to score 2 goals, actually scored 3 goals
  • Lazio: most likely to score 1 goal, actually scored 1 goal

MORE: “There Is Regret” – Simone Inzaghi Discusses Lazio’s 3-1 Loss to Inter Milan

Expected Goals (xG) Step Plot

The diagram above represents a summary of all simulations. The y-axis represents the cumulative xG (how many goals should be scored) and the x-axis represents time. 

  • Inter: cumulative xG of 2.28
  • Lazio: cumulative xG of 0.97

In addition, the diagram above summarizes every shot taken by each club. Each shot is represented by a step and the height of the step measures the xG outcome of that shot; the higher the step, the more likely that the shot taken should have been converted. Furthermore, a dot with a name on the ‘Expected Goals Step Plot’ represents when a goal was scored and who the goal was scored by. 

Finally, the colored bar in the top left of the diagram shows the probability of each club winning the match or a draw occurring.

  • Inter: 72%
  • Lazio: 10%
  • Draw: 18%

MORE: Ex-Inter Defender Paganin | “Lazio’s Patric & Hoedt Were Not up to the Level Required by Starters”

Pass Network Plot & Shot Location Plot

The diagram above firstly shows the number of passes completed by each side in the match.

  • Inter: 415 passes with a 74.2% accuracy rate
  • Lazio: 747 passes with an 84.3% accuracy rate

Secondly, the diagram outlines the most active players for each team. Each player is represented by a node; the size of each node denotes the number of touches each player had.

Thirdly, the diagram indicates the pass connections between teammates. These connections are the shaded grey lines throughout the plots; the size and shade of the line between players indicates the frequency of a pass connection. The top five connections are outlined in light blue (Lazio) and blue (Inter); it is important to note that the direction of each connection is not shown.

Finally, this diagram shows the coordinates of each shot. The shots are plotted as light grey dots while goals are plotted as dark blue dots. The size of each dot represents the xG; the bigger the dot, the higher the chance that this opportunity should have found the back of the net (been a dark blue dot). 

  • Inter: 12 total shots, 7 shots on target
  • Lazio: 14 total shots, 6 shots on target
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